No American sporting event resembles the NCAA tournament in the way it gives such a disparate group of teams a chance to compete. Outside of a few state high school tournaments, nothing else is remotely similar.
I mean, think about it. You could argue some pro organizations are at a huge disadvantage without an effective revenue cap – PL soccer, MLB and F1 racing come to mind. Everton isn’t winning the crowned Three Lions. The Pirates aren’t winning the ring of pennants. No one from Haas is winning the Drivers’ trophy.
And, no, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi isn’t winning the NCAA men’s basketball championship, either. But the point is, college basketball only requires three or four people to give a school with 1/100th the budget of a power-conference behemoth a fighting chance.
They can’t win the drivers’ championship. But they can win a race.
And to me, the beauty it is the races, not the trophy. The fun part isn’t the Final Four but everything that leads to it, the journey not the destination.
So, here’s to enjoying the journey, beginning with the labyrinth that is the 68-team bracket. Here’s by big swing on guessing who gets to New Orleans and how, region by region. (For the full filled-in bracket, scroll to the bottom.)
WEST
I like 8-seed Boise State with the mature players and the coach in Leon Rice to beat an entitled 9-seed Memphis team that thinks it’s better than it is. Especially with all the Bronco fans just a 6-hour drive up I-84 from Portland. Which slots Rice up against his mentor Mark Few in the second round.
Rutgers has an awfully tough trip tick if it makes it out of a First Four match with tidy, 3-pitching Notre Dame on Wednesday – to San Diego for Texas Tech on Friday. Knights had better be more attentive to the arc than they were against Iowa or Irish will make quick work.
Love 10-seed Davidson’s attentive and fundamental team to beat bloated 7-seed Michigan State. The Spartans toss the ball around like your Uncle Rick bowls – all over the place. Especially for an Izzo team.
Upset special: 4-seed Arkansas just got done getting axe-murdered by Texas A&M in the SEC semis and now is rewarded with a trip to… Buffalo. To face… 13-seed Vermont. For the UVT fans, it’s a lot like that Boise-Portland drive, just replace Oregon with six hours across New York State on I-90. Vermont fans and their spontaneous allies could take over the place.
UVT coach John Becker is a quirky individual who’s seems to have sorted out his life lately. And he can coach his butt off, maybe enough to coax a team of deadeye Catamounts to the wire. I’ll take a flyer on this as my longshot upset; every bracket needs one.
Second weekend: Gonzaga over Connecticut; Texas Tech over Duke. Which leaves us with a regional final that’s rematch of a Holiday non-contest in Phoenix when Bulldogs outdrew Raiders rather easily. Ditto here. Zags on to NOLA.
EAST
Indiana is lucky to be breathing, saved by a 3-game B1G tournament run and upset of Illinois that was the difference between Dayton and the NIT. If Trayce Jackson-Davis bottled some of that peppermint schnaps he must’ve gulped in Indy, Wyoming is in trouble. But a quick trip to Portland for 5-seed St. Mary’s is probably the end of the line for the 12-seed Hoosiers.
Everyone’s assuming a second-round battle in Indy between 2-seed Kentucky and 7-seed Murray State which would bring half the Bluegrass State over the border to Indy. But the Racers had better not look ahead or San Francisco will ambush them.
Upset special: After five groundbreaking years in Lubbock, Chris Beard has had a rocky first season in Austin. His Longhorns staggered to the finish 3-5, though the competition was steep (four of those to his old school Tech, Baylor and Kansas). They’ve been cold from the arc lately and blew a 20-point lead to Texas Christian last time out. They’re over-seeded as a 6 against a hot Virginia Tech team coming off an unexpected ACC title. I’ll take the 11-seed Hokies outright in Mil-wau-KAY.
Second weekend: I like the battle-tested vets of 4-seed UCLA over the much younger version of the defending kings 1-seed Baylor. And I don’t trust Purdue’s defense to contain Kentucky’s versatile array of potential scorers (five average double-digits).
The difference maker in the region I think is UK’s Congo-bred, Erie Kennedy Catholic-prepped West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe. The 6-9, 255-pound former soccer player has only been playing basketball seven years and is already the nation’s most impressive interior presence. He also is on a tear lately, interrupted only by foul trouble in the SEC quarterfinal against Tennessee. I’ll take the Coach Cals to emerge from Philadelphia and head to New Orleans.
SOUTH
Alabama-Birmingham is an interesting case. Ole Miss émigré Andy Kennedy has taken an eternal dollar-short program and turned it into a legit NCAA team. The Blazers are a talented, physically imposing side that would be a handful for any 5-seed on the board and could beat plenty a notch below.
Volume scorer Jordan Walker (.411 3P%, 113 3PG!) can get rolls if unattended. In fact, if UAB gets it going from the arc, nobody is immune. I wish the Blazers had gotten Iowa or St. Mary’s or even UConn because the 5-seed they drew is Houston, a little too formidable. Regardless, I’m looking forward to seeing in person on Friday in Pittsburgh what could be the most entertaining match of the first round.
Moreover, the pod at PPG Paints is a front-to-back firecracker with only 2-seed Villanova seemingly secure vs. neighbor 15-seed Delaware. Wobbly 4-seed Illinois should handle Chattanooga which sets up a train wreck with Houston. I’ll take the Cougars in a wild one.
Also in Pittsburgh: 10-seed Loyola (IL) is even money vs. 7-seed Ohio State. If the Big Ten is that good, should its 6th-place finisher be a pick-em against a mid-major that got swept in the regular season by Drake?
Upset special: It seems counterintuitive for a 6-seed to be +2½ against an 11-seed but that’s what Colorado State is against Michigan in Indianapolis. As documented Sunday night, I like the Rams here.
Second weekend: Arizona breezes into San Antonio and overruns Houston. Tennessee upends Nova. Wildcats are too much for Vols, cruise to New Orleans.
MIDWEST
I can’t trust Iowa. For a couple of reasons. Fran McCaffery’s team is playing high-scoring, entertaining basketball that’s seductive this time of year when so many others are soaking their feet in Epsom salts. And the Hawkeyes play better defense than they often have. And they certainly have more fluid athletes, notably B1G POY finalist winger Keegan Murrayand emerging soph big guard Tony Perkins.
But I can’t maintain NCAA faith in a program that hasn’t escaped the first weekend this century. Yep, it’s been since classless AD Bob Bowlsby told Tom Davis he wouldn’t be renewed before the 1998-99 season, then conducted a search during it that spat out the Big Idea of Steve Alford. Bowlsby, more recently notorious as the dunderhead Big 12 commissioner, then watched Davis’ last Hawkeye team make the Sweet 16 pretty much to spite him.
I like McCaffery and he has Iowa revving high. And this team’s defense is a little better than usual. Still, his teams have a history of being overrun by serious firepower in the Dance. In their past five NCAA exits, the Hawks have allowed 78, 87, 87, 83 and 95 (last March to Oregon).
Maybe this is an advantageous draw because neither Richmond nor Providence is that sort of team. Anyway, maybe we’re headed for Iowa-Kansas in Chicago; I’ll pencil it in.
Upset special: Louisiana State is not your typical 6-seed what with a stack of NCAA allegations just dropped on its front steps and sleazy coach Will Wade finally tossed down them last week. That the Tigers are still a -4 favorite over Iowa State in Milwaukee is a mainly a testament to how the Cyclones have stumbled through the past two months and especially March. They’ve shot 14-of-67 (.209 3P%) from the arc and averaged 48 points over the past three games. Of course, two of those opponents were Baylor and Texas Tech. So, I have faith that Iowa State and Izaiah Brockington can find a way to sink LSU’s rudderless ship.
Second weekend: Kansas over Iowa in a rodeo. Auburn in a walk through a flimsy back end of the bracket. Jayhawks survive basically because nobody’s good enough to take them out.
FINAL FOUR
Kentucky over Gonzaga.
Arizona over Kansas.
In this Wildcat fight, I’ll take the weather-beaten old Calipari (63) over the newbie and 20-year assistant to Mark Few at Gonzaga, Tommy Lloyd (47).
It would be UK and Cal’s first title in a decade. It would also be fitting for this 2022 season. In a year when every side has blemishes, the man who never cared to hide his prevails.
More PennLive sports coverage:
• Three NCAA tournament sleepers who could build your bracket (and bust everyone else’s).
• Harrar predicts Big Ten title for Penn State after 69-61 loss to Purdue in his Nits’ finale.
• ‘Hey, Jones!’: Penn State’s Indy run not done, John Harrar’s legacy, annoying airline passengers.
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