And yet fertility numbers below the replacement level can be seen even in countries with a majority Catholic population or with historically high levels of Catholics. A recent panel that took place at the Catholic University of America moderated by New York Times columnist Ross Douthat looked at the variety of reasons for this, which includes loss of religious faith and changing cultural values.
Some countries with high levels of Catholics are still reporting high levels of fertility: Angola, for instance, is more than 50% Catholic and reports a fertility rate of 5.6 — well above the global average. Paraguay, meanwhile, is about 90% Catholic and has a fertility rate of 2.5, which is above replacement level.
Yet other countries long known for high levels of Catholicism are nevertheless well below replacement levels: Poland, at more than 90% Catholic, has a fertility rate of 1.3; while Spain, at 75% Catholic, is even lower at 1.2. Mexico is more than 80% Catholic yet still falls below replacement level, at 1.8.
A National Bureau of Economic Research study from 2012 found that “strongly Catholic countries” in Europe at the start of the 1970s “had fertility almost a half child per woman higher” than surveyed non-Catholic countries. Yet by the end of the 20th century, those same Catholic countries had fertility rates considerably lower than non-Catholic countries.
The 2012 study argued that the decline could be attributed to the fact that the Catholic Church “retreated in the mid 1960s from providing a variety of family-friendly services,” including “education, health, welfare, and other social services,” thus making it more expensive to have children. Additionally, polling shows that large majorities of Catholics believe birth control is acceptable, while other data indicate large majorities of Catholic women are using some form of artificial contraception.
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